Demand Elasticty for Green Transport in China
Sunday, February 15, 2009 14:54Historically degraded from industrial pollution, China’s air quality levels have also seen a marked reduction in quality due to the addition to millions of new cars and trucks.
It is a problem that Beijing very publicly addressed during the Olympics by removing cars from the road and increasing the number of natural gas buses, and cities like Shanghai and Kunming have also been looking for answers that suit their people as well.
Climate change mitigation and co-benefits of feasible transport demand policies in Beijing by Felix Creutzig and Dongquan is a study that looks at the environmental impacts transportation, the options available, and then tries to measure the level of public acceptance.
It is an issue that, as China continues to urbanize, will only grow in importance:
In 2006, the transportation sector emitted only about 9% of the countries GHG emissions, well below the level of OECD countries. However, the rapid growth rate in vehicle ownership – 570% from 1990 until 2006 – and air traffic demonstrates converging dynamics. Beijing is a focal point: here, 1% of China’s population drives 10% of China’s vehicles
In Beijing:
In Beijing, vehicles increased from 1.2 million in 2000 to 2.5 million in 2005 and 3.5 million in 2008. Air pollution has become one of the leading causes of deaths, outdoor air pollution alone leading to more than 400.000 premature deaths each year in China
Which, as we can in the chart above:
the relative contribution of social gain in mitigating environmental social costs, air pollution, and climate change mitigation, increases with higher elasticity; higher values translate more into significant environmental gains as well as congestion relief.
Important data for policy makers to know when weighing their alternatives and opportunities

